The executive order of Donald Trump to prevent the entry of people from seven muslim countries to the United States didn’t pass. And there’s no sign it will pass in the future. And everything seems to indicate that the same will happen to Trump’s project to make Mexicans pay for the building —or extension—of the border wall. There’s no clue about how this might become a reality.
The situation is more or less the same regarding Trump’s desire to cancel or renegotiate Mexico’s part in the NAFTA. Such a measure would encounter numerous, powerful obstacles both sides of the border. And in the case of a renegotiation, the matter would take up a lot of time. These things don’t happen overnight.
But if Trump, against all odds, decides to abandon the agreement or impose a newer, more damaging one on Mexico, he would be seriously —and perhaps terminally— undermining Enrique Peña Nieto’s government. Without this docile government, who would Trump count on to control the southern neighbor if things get out of control?
On the other hand, deporting 12 million Mexican migrants is also not easy nor quick. Obama expelled almost three millions over eight years. And as some go out, others come in. And some return several times through different channels.
The main factor in all of these situations is time. And a few weeks into his mandate, there’s reasons to believe that time is precisely what Trump is going to lack. Not only to take care of his plans, but also to keep an eye on the efforts of his many enemies to take him out of the Oval Office. He’s got a lot on his plate.
One of those issues is Iran: Is Trump going to disregard the nuclear arms deal in force with this unsubmissive country? Could this contain the adversary or only make it even stronger? And how does Trump plan to dominate China, who is on top of all allied with Russia?
And another, more visible one, is the internal crisis in his cabinet. Several people close to him have already had to abandon the team. Michael Flynn (National Security Advisor) followed Andrew Puzder, who was going to be Secretary of Commerce. Also, Presidential Spokesman Sean Spicer and advisor Kellyanne Conway are under attack. Not to mention the scandal surrounding the White House protecting Ivanka’s business.
The sensible, prudent thing to do would be dedicate time, money and efforts to protect himself from a new Watergate (in his case, Kremlingate). It has just begun. And given the rich ties between Trump and the Russian government, it doesn’t seem likely that the enemies of the tycoon will abandon this goldmine of arguments to attack him soon.
So, for now, Peña Nieto can sleep tight. Trump’s mind will be, for now, on other issues. The Kremlingate is a gift from heaven.