Source: Brasil de Fato / Editor: Simone Freire / The Dawn News / January 31, 2018
The legal proceedings regarding the case of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT)—which was appealed on January 24 in Porto Alegre by the Number 4 Regional Court (TRF4) —have not yet come to an end, but a scenario in which he is prevented from running for election is already being evaluated by Brazil’s mainstream media and political forces.
According to a survey conducted last Monday (January 29) and Tuesday (January 30), by the pollster Datafolha, in all scenarios in which the former president runs as a candidate, Lula appears to be leading the polls, with 34% to 37% of the potential votes. And in the second round he would also win against all other competitors.
If Lula is barred from running for the presidency by the Clean Slate Act, a runoff election is bound to occur between Brazil’s version of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, and any of four other candidates. Datafolha’s research, which is the first one after the TRF4 trial, indicates that Bolsonaro has 18% of the potential votes, ahead of Marina Silva (Network) with 13%, Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 10%, and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Luciano Huck (no party), both with 8%.
Compared to the last survey made in November 2017, Bolsonaro plateaued. So much so that he would be defeated in two runoff scenarios: against former President Lula and against Senator Marina Silva.
The percentage of voters who would cast a null or blank vote increases from 16% to 28% when the former president is absent in the dispute.
And within the PSDB, internal conflicts escalate. The fact that Alckmin did not do well in the analyzed scenarios, with potential voters between 6% and 11%, provoked internal discussions in the party, raising names like Luciano Huck, who appears numerically tied with the governor of São Paulo, and the mayor of São Paulo, João Doria, with 5%.
However, there is still a long way to go until the elections, which will be held between October 18 and 22.
Datafolha made 2,826 interviews in 174 counties. The margin of error is give or take two points.